Seat Dossier · Johor Bahru

N45 — Stulang

Parliament: Johor Bahru · Profile: urban. Seat identity from seed receipt; signals below are live and source-receipted, with honest empty states where verified data is missing.

LikelyConf · LowVol · —Partially verified

Probability estimate

PH36.9%

BN21.0%

PN21.0%

BERSAMA21.0%

Interval 20%–54% · 0.0pp / 7d · model baseline-1.0

Baseline & limitations

Winner-level 2022 baseline; full candidate-level history pending.
Inputs are partially verified (trusted secondary source, pending official verification).
No verified news or sentiment signals ingested yet; confidence intentionally capped.
Probability estimate, not a prediction or guarantee.
Challenger parties share the remainder equally — the model has no candidate-level data to separate them.

Probability estimate, not prediction guarantee. Methodology

Why this seat moved

▲2022 baseline: PH won this seat with 44.8% vote share
▼4-candidate field across 4 parties raises volatility
■No verified news or sentiment signals ingested yet
▼Candidate list partially verified (trusted secondary source)

Candidates

Verified against Tier 1/2 nomination sources where available.

Andrew Cheng Kah Eng
PH · unknown
Partially verified
Stanley Tan
BERSAMA · unknown
Partially verified
Lim Chin Eng @ Roland Lim
PN · unknown
Partially verified
Bong Seng Heng
BN · unknown
Partially verified

Sentiment & issue pressure

Not computed yet

Sentiment publishes only when a real sentiment model has run for this seat. Until then the field stays empty — nothing is fabricated in its absence.

Active narratives touching this seat

No narrative clusters currently mapped to this seat.

News coverage mapped to this seat

Emerging signal — below cluster threshold

Stored, source-receipted articles whose text matched this DUN via deterministic registry extraction. Articles are unverified evidence, never sampled or fabricated. Coverage here is below the narrative cluster threshold (2 articles from 2 sources) — an early mention, not a narrative; no trend, velocity or sentiment is computed for it.

Stulang assemblyman Andrew Chen returns to lead Johor Opposition after bruising state election
Malay Mail · maybe relevant
Conf · Low28 Aug, 12:18 pm

Probability timeline · N45 Stulang · leading party

Not enough history yet

A timeline needs at least two model runs. It appears once the probability model has run more than once for this seat.

Electorate & demographics

Awaiting official import

Electorate counts and demographic context load from SPR and OpenDOSM in live mode. No figures are shown without a Tier 1 receipt.

Historical results

Official results imported and verified against Tier 1/2 sources.

Pilihan Raya Negeri Johor 2022 / PRU Dewan Negeri Johor ke-15
Pakatan Harapan (DAP) · 12,499 votes · 44.8% share · turnout —

Audit trail

No audit entries for this seat yet.