The Signal Room · Johor State Election
Know where Johor is moving before the headlines catch up.
Sistem risikan pilihan raya untuk membaca calon, isu dan kebarangkalian kemenangan setiap DUN Johor — dengan bukti sumber, bukan sekadar andaian.
0/56
DUN with live estimates
0
Candidates on file
2
Source receipts
0
Stored articles
From noise to signal
Beribu mention tidak bermakna apa-apa tanpa konteks kawasan.
Mandat Johor menapis noise menjadi signal yang boleh diaudit — setiap keluaran membawa resit sumber, skor keyakinan dan status pengesahan.
Verification · Dedupe · Entity link
Verified identity + mention quality
Coalition-level movement, source-weighted
Narrative clusters mapped to seats
Estimate with stated uncertainty
Live seat forecast preview
Three seats, three different races.
No probability estimates yet
The model has not published an estimate for any seat yet. This preview appears once the probability model has run.
Why this seat moved
Every shift comes with its reasons attached.
When a probability moves, the model publishes its drivers, its confidence, and the receipts behind each one. No silent updates, no unexplained jumps — the audit trail is part of the product.
Movement detected
No published movement in the current window
Baseline estimates are live for all tracked seats. Movement is published only when consecutive receipted model runs diverge — the system never animates a number to look busy.
Evidence Vault
No source, no metric. That rule is enforced in the schema.
Every fact-bearing row in the database carries a source receipt: name, tier, URL, retrieval time, confidence, verification status and audit history. These are the latest receipts on file.
| Source | Tier | Retrieved | Confidence | Status | Receipt |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SPR — Senarai Bahagian Pilihan Raya (seed reference) | TIER1 OFFICIAL | 1 Jul, 01:00 am | Conf · Medium | Partially verified | |
| Public party registry (seed reference) | TIER2 STRUCTURED | 1 Jul, 01:00 am | Conf · Medium | Partially verified |
Methodology
Built to be audited.
01
Estimates, not guarantees
Every probability ships with a confidence interval and a model confidence grade. The system never claims to know a result.
02
Official data wins
SPR and official notices override secondary sources for candidates, seats and results. Cross-checks run on every important fact.
03
Fact ≠ model ≠ rumour
A candidate name is a fact. A probability is a model output. An unverified claim is a rumour — each is labelled and stored separately.
04
Conflicts are shown, not hidden
When sources disagree, the UI says 'Source conflict detected' and the item routes to the Verification Desk for manual review.
The map is the product
Enter the Johor War Room.
Fifty-six seats, one command center. Probabilities, narratives, emerging signals and receipts — in one screen built for decision pressure.