Mandat JohorMandat Johor
Live data

Seat Dossier · Muar–Tangkak

N09 — Gambir

Parliament: Ledang · Profile: rural. Seat identity from seed receipt; signals below are live and source-receipted, with honest empty states where verified data is missing.

LikelyConf · LowVol · —Partially verified

Probability estimate

BN42.2%
PH28.9%
PN28.9%

Interval 27%–57% · 0.0pp / 7d · model baseline-1.0

Baseline & limitations

  • Winner-level 2022 baseline; full candidate-level history pending.
  • Inputs are partially verified (trusted secondary source, pending official verification).
  • No verified news or sentiment signals ingested yet; confidence intentionally capped.
  • Probability estimate, not a prediction or guarantee.
  • Challenger parties share the remainder equally — the model has no candidate-level data to separate them.

Probability estimate, not prediction guarantee. Methodology

Why this seat moved

  • ▲2022 baseline: BN won this seat with 45.5% vote share
  • ■3-candidate field across 3 parties shapes volatility
  • ■No verified news or sentiment signals ingested yet
  • ▼Candidate list partially verified (trusted secondary source)

Candidates

Verified against Tier 1/2 nomination sources where available.

Sentiment & issue pressure

Not computed yet

Sentiment publishes only when a real sentiment model has run for this seat. Until then the field stays empty — nothing is fabricated in its absence.

Active narratives touching this seat

No narrative clusters currently mapped to this seat.

News coverage mapped to this seat

Emerging signal — below cluster threshold

Stored, source-receipted articles whose text matched this DUN via deterministic registry extraction. Articles are unverified evidence, never sampled or fabricated. Coverage here is below the narrative cluster threshold (2 articles from 2 sources) — an early mention, not a narrative; no trend, velocity or sentiment is computed for it.

Probability timeline · N09 Gambir · leading party

Not enough history yet

A timeline needs at least two model runs. It appears once the probability model has run more than once for this seat.

Electorate & demographics

Awaiting official import

Electorate counts and demographic context load from SPR and OpenDOSM in live mode. No figures are shown without a Tier 1 receipt.

Historical results

Official results imported and verified against Tier 1/2 sources.

  • Pilihan Raya Negeri Johor 2022 / PRU Dewan Negeri Johor ke-15

    Barisan Nasional (UMNO) · 7,960 votes · 45.5% share · turnout —

Audit trail

  • No audit entries for this seat yet.