Mandat JohorMandat Johor
Live data

Seat Dossier · Muar–Tangkak

N09 — Gambir

Parliament: Ledang · Profile: rural. Seat identity from seed receipt; signals below are live and source-receipted, with honest empty states where verified data is missing.

LikelyConf · LowVol · —Partially verified

Probability estimate

BN42.2%
PH28.9%
PN28.9%

Interval 27%–57% · 0.0pp / 7d · model baseline-1.0

Baseline & limitations

  • Winner-level 2022 baseline; full candidate-level history pending.
  • Inputs are partially verified (trusted secondary source, pending official verification).
  • No verified news or sentiment signals ingested yet; confidence intentionally capped.
  • Probability estimate, not a prediction or guarantee.
  • Challenger parties share the remainder equally — the model has no candidate-level data to separate them.

Probability estimate, not prediction guarantee. Methodology

Why this seat moved

  • ▲2022 baseline: BN won this seat with 45.5% vote share
  • ■3-candidate field across 3 parties shapes volatility
  • ■No verified news or sentiment signals ingested yet
  • ▼Candidate list partially verified (trusted secondary source)

Candidates

Verified against Tier 1/2 nomination sources where available.

Sentiment & issue pressure

Not computed yet

Sentiment publishes only when a real sentiment model has run for this seat. Until then the field stays empty — nothing is fabricated in its absence.

Active narratives touching this seat

No narrative clusters currently mapped to this seat.

News coverage mapped to this seat

Stored, source-receipted articles whose text matched this DUN via deterministic registry extraction. Articles are unverified evidence, never sampled or fabricated.

No stored coverage for this seat

No ingested article mentions this seat yet. This is an honest empty state — coverage appears only when the ingestion pipeline stores a receipted match.

Probability timeline · N09 Gambir · leading party

Not enough history yet

A timeline needs at least two model runs. It appears once the probability model has run more than once for this seat.

Electorate & demographics

Awaiting official import

Electorate counts and demographic context load from SPR and OpenDOSM in live mode. No figures are shown without a Tier 1 receipt.

Historical results

Official results imported and verified against Tier 1/2 sources.

  • Pilihan Raya Negeri Johor 2022 / PRU Dewan Negeri Johor ke-15

    Barisan Nasional (UMNO) · 7,960 votes · 45.5% share · turnout —

Audit trail

  • No audit entries for this seat yet.